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28 May 2019 Share

The Consumer Confidence Index continues to rise due to the current period of national elections



The month of May turns out to be the second consecutive increase in the Consumer Confidence Index, recovering by 1.8 points. In this way, the aforementioned registry places him "at a level of 46.95", thus remaining in a zone of "moderate pessimism", moving closer to the "neutral zone" (for which 49.9 points are needed) which It took place in December of the year 2016.

The index in this opportunity as well as the one mentioned in 2016, is prepared by the Consulting Teams and the SURA Chair of Economic Confidence of the Catholic University. On the other hand, it is not very far from the 51 points needed to qualify as "moderate optimism" according to data from the same consulting team (only 4 points).

In the institution's own words: "In a month of heterogeneous behavior of the various indices, the recovery is driven by expectations of better 'future conditions', possibly associated with the electoral cycle, within the framework of a stable perception of the conditions current", are some of the words of the report.

"The increase of 1.8 points of the ICC with respect to March results from a marked recovery of the expectations regarding the Economic Situation of the Country (+5 points), both at 12 months (+3.6) and at three years (+ 6.4)". So the increase manifests itself in a rise that continues up to the present moment.

If a comparison is made, the average of the Consumer Confidence Index of January-April with respect to the same period of 2018, is 1.5 points below. "On the one hand, the perception of the Personal Economic Situation is more pessimistic (-1.8), while on the Economic Situation of the Country there is less pessimism (+3.6)". This data is particularly interesting, since it means that despite the personal situation of the individual, he is able to perceive that his environment or other subjects at the macro level of society, have an improvement.

This characteristic in the Confianza index is consistent in other electoral periods: "In 2019 the pattern of the previous electoral years for which there are surveys will be replicated: as in 2009 and in 2014, the possibility that with the next government can improve the economic conditions of the country promotes greater optimism in the subindex 'economic situation of the country', and within this, particularly the expectations more medium term (three years).
Another interesting fact of the report is the following: "the consumer would discriminate between how he perceives the situation of the current economy, with an index of 'current conditions' 4.2 points lower than that of January-April 2018, while that of' future conditions', it turns out to be 1.8 higher, and within three years expectations are the ones driving the improvement, with an increase of 4.5 points".

HOW WAS THE INDEX CREATED?

This applies the methodology of the Consumer Confidence Index (ICC) prepared by the University of Michigan, and in the case of Uruguay, it has been prepared by Equipos Consultores since August 2007. To reach a final value, it is constructed based on six questions with positive, negative and neutral pre-coded answers (where the option does not know, does not answer).

The population studied must be over 18 years old and receive the survey by telephone. The sample arises from randomly typing within each prefix and its size is 400 cases each measurement. The expected margin of error is +/- 4.8%, with 95% confidence.

The zones of confidence are categorized as follows: Important optimism (70 to 100 points), Optimistic optimism (60 to 69) Moderate optimism (51 to 59), Neutral Zone (from 49.1 to 50.9) Moderate pessimism ( 40 to 49), Pessimism (30 to 39) and Pessimism (0 to 29).

Thus, the electoral factor plays in favor of the improvement in the indicator. Undoubtedly the generation of jobs during this period also influences.

Material generated from the digital information of the El País newspaper: click here

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